This is my first NFL betting lines segment for the 2008-09 NFL season. Early each week I’ll talk about the preliminary lines. And I invite you to participate as well.

The NFL season officially kicks off this coming Thursday, so I put the NFL lines and this segment up early.

There are four NFL lines that I will discuss.

We’re finally approaching the start of the 2008-09 NFL football season and I’m excited. Usually I like to see a week of action before firing off my bets, but week 1 has a couple of interesting lines that I believe hold great value.

The Dallas line moved up a point, from 3 to 4, and the New England line has moved 2.5 points as bets continue to flow in on the Patriots.

Here’s the current NFL odds for week 1:

The Vegas sportsbooks have an under/over win total line of 7 for the New York Jets. I’m making an NFL prediction right here that the Jets at least tie that number. The addition of Brett Favre is but one piece of the pie.

Here are three reasons why the Jets win 7+ games in 2008-09

1. NFL Schedule

The schedule for the Jets is much easier this season. Take a look at the monsters they faced in 2007: New England twice, Cleveland, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Washington, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, NY Giants and Baltimore.

Say what you want about their schedule last season, but look at the bulk of their teams for 2008: Miami twice (with Favre, could be 2 wins), Arizona, Oakland, Kansas City, Buffalo twice (perhaps split with Favre), St. Louis, Tennessee, and San Francisco.

While they have a few rough games (New England, at Seattle), they have at least 10 winable games on their schedule.

2. Brett Favre

Let’s just be honest. Favre adds a ton to this Jets offense (just got to catch the ball). In his lone preseason series so far, he went right down the field against the Redskins for a TD.

How many points does Favre add to the Jets? 7? 10? 14?

And that brings us to point three.

3. Momentum and Closeness Factor

Last season they lost to Tennessee 6-10. That’s 4 points and no TDs. Think they can stop Favre?

Interestingly, the Jets went to New England and only lost by 10. Sure, might be a stretch, but you never know.

The Jets lost to Cleveland by 6 points.

The Jets lost to the Redskins by 3 points.

The Jets lost to Buffalo by 3 and 10 points.

The Jets lost to Cincinnati by 7 points.

The Jets lost to Philadelphia by 7 points.

The Jets lost to the Super Bowl Champion Giants by 11.

The Jets lost to Baltimore by 7 points.

See a trend here?

If Favre + momentum = 7 points, the Jets would have had a much better record last year against a tougher schedule.

When you add it all up, I feel confident making an NFL prediction for the Jets winning 7+ games in 2008-09.

What do you think?

I was reviewing NFL futures today and I decided to make an NFL prediction about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Looking at some sportsbooks, I see their under/over season win total is at 8.5. In 2007, the Bucs were 9-7 and I don’t think they can repeat it.

Why?

Well, let’s start with the fact that the Bucs are old and perhaps a bit transitional. Jeff Garcia is prone to injury (play style) and he’s 38. Next up we have Joey Galloway at 36. What would the Bucs do without him? I’ll tell you what. They wouldn’t score. Finally, we look at the running game. Warrick Dunn is 33. While he’s got some time left, he’s still not going to have a career year.

Next, let’s look at their schedule.

If you’re newer to NFL betting and don’t know how to read NFL betting lines, then you’ll want to check out my newest video “NFL Football Spreads.”

It’s an 8-minute video (streaming via YouTube).

To watch the video: CLICK HERE

I hope you enjoy this first Sports Betting Football video. There will be others.

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My name is John Morrison and I am a Cornell University graduate with a PhD degree in statistics. On the side, I’m a full-blooded sports enthusiast who has practically never missed the big game. I found the perfect hobby to combine both of my sports and statistical interests in sports betting. Over the last 5 years I’ve spent untold hours researching the sporting database in a pursuit to develop a foolproof sports betting system.

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