NFL Betting Strategies - Bet Unders on NFL Total Lines in Week 1

It’s week one of the NFL season and you’re all pumped up about winning lots of NFL bets over the course of the season. You’ll probably bet on many NFL lines, such as over/unders on the totals. Is there a key to winning football bets on the totals in week 1?

This is the first part in our on-going series about NFL betting strategies. I try to stay away from terms like “NFL betting systems.”

Today, I look at totals lines for week 1 of the NFL season and present you with some interesting thoughts about betting them.

Last night the New York Giants beat the Washington Redskins 16 - 7. They covered the spread and the game went under the total. In fact, I hit my first free NFL pick on the season (source: free NFL pick). In that quick analysis I alluded to the under.

Aside from the fact that I knew the Redskins offense wouldn’t do much of anything, I also looked at a bit of history.

In the 2007-08 NFL season, the average points scored per game in week 1 was 36. Possibly a fluke?

Let’s look at the 2006-07 NFL season. The average points scored per game in week 1 then was 34.

Going back further, I looked at both the 2005-06 and the 2004-05 NFL seasons and found that the points scored per game in week 1 were identical (38).

The over/under for the Giants game was 41. Just looking at averages and history showed that this game was an under play. When you added the Redskins offense to the mix, it helped solidify the play.